Brexit likely to hit Leave voting areas hardest

Flip Chart Fairy Tales

If people voted Leave to stick it to the metropolitan elite they might be disappointed. A piece of research published in Regional Studies journal this month found that London is a lot less dependent on EU trade than most other parts of the UK. Furthermore, the regions that voted strongly for leave tended also to be the same regions whose economies were most dependent on the EU.

The researchers used data from the World Input–Output Database to calculate the share of each NUTS-2 region’s economic activity that is dependent on trade with the rest of the EU. They then mapped this against that region’s Leave vote.

Figure 1. Relationship between the NUTS-2 regional votes for leave and the regional gross domestic product (GDP) share due to consumption and investment demand in the other European Union countries, 2010.

Note: R2 = 0.31.

They then did the same with the share of wages.

Figure 2. Relationship between the NUTS-2 regional votes…

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